1. Bubble Chasing

    I try to read John P. Hussman’s (of Hussman Funds) articles at least once or twice a month. His article of this past week, entitled “The Recklessness of Quantitative Easing,” gives me a chunk which I’d award Quote of the Month. Heck, Quote of the Year, maybe.

    Long-term economic prosperity is created by carefully allocating savings to productive investments that increase the output of goods and services that meet the needs of consumers, and whose production generates the income required to purchase that output. Everything else is bubble chasing.

    The entire article is absolutely worth a read — if you’d like an economic point of view that runs counter to what we’re so often force-fed by CNBC and most financial outlets.




     

     

  2. Current Commercials: Allstate “Mayhem” FTW

    I have to hand out some kudos to Allstate for their “Mayhem” series of commercials. I have become a big, big fan.

    Allstate gets Bonus Points from me because insurance is very much relevant to successful personal finance. Heck, you could pretty much take these commercials and turn them into “This is why you need an Emergency Fund” spots with just some simple dialogue mods.

    More Bonus Points for that guy’s deadpan, “I’m all, OMG, Becky’s not even hot.”

    While driving a pink Dodge SUV.

    Pure, unadulterated viewing goodness. (As commercials go.)




     

     

  3. K-Cup Prices to Increase

    It’s a good thing we have the Fed on our side, promising future “easy money” policies and thereby making sure that market prices don’t do something nasty, like decrease.

    Otherwise, you might have retailers and producers resorting to absolutely insane schemes, such as dropping prices on commodities and food and various necessary items. Obviously, in a credit-soaked economy like ours, price declines must be resisted at every opportunity. The last thing you want is for your present-day dollars to actually go farther (and past debts to grow more cumbersome).

    Heresy, for sure.

    Thankfully, the fine folks at Green Mountain Coffee have gotten the memo:

    Green Mountain Coffee: We’re Raising Our Prices

    I’m a big K-Cup and Keurig fan, so this eight percent increase (from $11.95 per box to $12.95) isn’t likely to dissuade me much.

    So go ahead, Federal Reserve governors. Threaten to flood the system with more money. And smile, why don’t you.




     

     

  4. Blurry Images in IE8

    Okay. So this post has absolutely nothing to do with personal finance, but I’m going to mention it anyway.

    Internet Explorer 8 is my browser of choice these days. Sometime in the last few months, I noticed that most web images (GIFs in particular) were just a smidge blurry. Not horrible, but enough to notice … and just enough to bug the living crap out of me.

    Numerous Google searches left me with no fix. I played around with settings in TOOLS → INTERNET OPTIONS for hours, probably, but to no avail. I figured it had to be something with Internet Explorer 8, as the same blurry images looked just fine in IE7 (the default browser on my work laptop).

    Then I happened upon the third post in this message-board thread … and BINGO.

    Turns out the zoom slider in the bottom right corner of my IE8 browser had somehow gotten changed to 105%.

    When I adjusted it back to 100%, my web images were clear again.

    Oh, the joy I felt. Amazing how such a little thing can cause untold irritation. And the fix, of course, was in plain sight the whole time!




     

     

  5. Fed and the “Phony” Economy

    I don’t pretend to understand all the workings of macroeconomics, though I’ve made efforts in recent years to educate myself on larger-scale economics issues that would’ve bored me senseless when I was younger — and far more intrigued by Beavis and Butthead than by short-term interest rates and credit spreads.

    When I read the following Reuters article the other day, I found myself agreeing with the author far more than I’ve done with most mainstream financial writing lately:

    Reuters: Fed is Banking on Phony Wealth Effect

    I suppose it would be nice to believe, as so many money gurus do, that our Federal Reserve officials and economists at large have so much knowledge and historical data these days that it’s virtually impossible for our economy (or the world’s economy, for that matter) to undergo any sort of “great depression” as was experienced in the 1930s. There are, as I’ve heard Dave Ramsey say on more than one occasion, “too many safety valves in place.”

    Ummm … yeah.

    I don’t buy that theory for a second. Rather, I tend to believe that usually, that kind of pride and arrogance (“The Titanic is unsinkable!”) goes before the fall. Nature, and other forces larger than us, have a way of eventually cracking whatever multi-reinforced structures we previously believed were failproof.

    Sometimes it’s ocean liners. Sometimes it’s Centralized Economic Recovery Planning™.

    Equilibrium, in short, will always have its day.

    From the article:

    A round of speeches from key Fed officials has given the clear view that, faced with deteriorating conditions and trapped by the lower bound of zero in its monetary policy, the Fed is preparing to once again buy up large amounts of Treasuries, perhaps even more than the government is issuing on an ongoing basis, in an attempt to drive down market interest rates and stimulate the economy.

    Will that do any good, given that people generally do not want to borrow and the banking system is impaired?

    “Balance sheet policy can still lower longer-term borrowing costs for many households and businesses, and it adds to household wealth by keeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would be,” Sack said in a speech in Newport Beach, California on Monday.

    And right there is where we step into folly: Keeping interest rates artificially low means asset prices will stay higher than they otherwise would be. And apparently, for our Fed captains, this brings additional household “wealth.” Which of course exists only to be borrowed against, and spent.

    So, there you have it: Pump up asset prices and hope that people spend some of the ephemeral gains. The idea that people will spend more if their houses and other assets rise in value is called the wealth effect, but this policy creates only pretend wealth.

    In fact, many people in the U.S. now face diminished retirements and generally straitened circumstances precisely because they mistook the rising prices of their house and Internet stocks for wealth and spent or borrowed against it. Is the U.S. actually so desperate for economic activity that this is the best it can do? Apparently so.

    Yes. I think some would call it “empire in decline,” actually. When the answer to every question is “more borrowing” and “more debt,” you really have to step back and admire all the delusion around you. This can’t end well.

    I’m pretty certain that equilibrium will have its day. I don’t imagine that it will be pretty, either.

    The only question is how long we can put it off.




     

     

  6. Food Stamp Participation: Still Rising

    Here’s a shocker: U.S. food-stamp participation (now called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP) is still rising.

    Per Bloomberg, roughly one in eight Americans will participate in the program during the upcoming fiscal year.

    Chart source data here and here. Ugly spreadsheet here.




     

     

  7. Broke? Try Budgeting

    I’m not one of those guys who says that everyone needs to live on a budget. Not everyone does, because not everyone is broke.

    But if you’re broke, then yes, you need to budget your money. Heck, if you’re only semi-broke, you need to budget your money. In You’re Broke Because You Want to Be (review), Larry Winget explains it far better than I:

    You can’t survive spending more than you make. Make it fit. Keep slashing your expenses until you figure it out. Or earn more money. When you have cut the numbers until they fit within your income, live on what you earn. That is what responsible adults do. Be one.

    You’ll be fine. This budget won’t kill you. Will you die from doing this? No. Then don’t worry about it. It’s not forever. It’s what you have to do until you stop being broke.

    Why am I bringing this up? Because within the past week, I’ve had two admittedly-broke individuals tell me that (1) they hate living in the paycheck-to-paycheck club, and (2) they find budgeting to be too hard.

    So paycheck-to-paycheck is where they stay.

    In other words, while some part of them might actually prefer to not be broke, they defy all logic and refuse to actually work at not being broke.

    Sometimes, Reality Sucks

    No matter how you slice it, a successful budget is where you match your spending to your cash reality.

    This process of squeezing your outflows into your level of income will very likely show you things you don’t want to see, and really would like to flat-out ignore. But ignoring is presumably what you’ve been doing this whole time. And look how far that got you.

    I’m a guy who loves to be in control. I’m always happiest when I know where I stand with my money. Therefore, I cannot understand folks who dismiss budgeting as being “too hard” or “too much work.” Whilst my household no longer needs to follow a strict spending plan, and can get along just fine by utilizing Quicken’s cash-flow tab…

    Cash Flow - Click to Enlarge

    … the fact remains that I couldn’t have gotten to this point without having followed spending plans for years beforehand.

    By the Way: David Bach Is an Idiot

    I know David Bach says that budgeting doesn’t work. I know David Bach says that budgeting isn’t fun. I know David Bach says that just automatically slapping money into a tax-advantaged account is a path to untold riches. (I think he said something similar about house-buying, but I never bought that book.)

    I say that David Bach is an idiot. Well, maybe not an idiot, because he knows precisely how to sell financial books to a public that will pay damn near anything to be told that getting rich is easy.

    But he is wrong about budgeting. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

    Getting rich isn’t easy, and getting out of the paycheck-to-paycheck cycle is well nigh impossible if you’re not willing to work at it. And “work” means planning your spending and then tracking your spending. That much I know.

    There — I got that off my chest. I feel better now.

    Back to Civilization V for me!




     

     

  8. CareerBuilder: 77% Living Paycheck to Paycheck

    Now this is some encouraging news … if you enjoy financial distress.

    If we’re to believe CareerBuilder’s survey of 4,500 U.S. workers — and I don’t really have a great reason not to — then roughly 77 percent of us describe ourselves as living paycheck to paycheck:

    CareerBuilder: Nearly 8 in 10 Living Paycheck to Paycheck

    From the article:

    Nearly eight-in-ten (77 percent) workers report that they live paycheck to paycheck to make ends meet. Sixty-one percent of workers said that they felt they lived paycheck to paycheck to make ends meet in 2009. Workers went on to say that sometimes they are unable to make ends meet at all, with one-in-five (22 percent) saying they have missed payments on bills in the last year.

    Ouch. Earlier this year, I mentioned that more and more $100k workers were living paycheck to paycheck, too.

    For those of you who like charts, here’s one with a bit more data from the CareerBuilder survey:

    Pretty great, ain’t it, that more people were willing to dip into savings and retirement accounts than were willing to cancel their cable TV and other subscriptions. What the hell are people thinking?

    And since I’ve already got Excel open, I might as well update this running chart while I’m at it:

    If you’re interested in comparisons, I covered last year’s CareerBuilder survey here.




     

     

  9. Excel: Switching Rows & Columns

    Every so often I find the need to swap (or transpose) rows and columns in Excel.

    Take a report generated in Quicken, for instance. I like to see how my spending categories change from month to month. Getting Quicken to generate a Spending Report that shows this is really easy. In the Quicken menubar, REPORTS → SPENDING → SPENDING BY CATEGORY will get you there. Generate the report, then select your Date Range. Add a column for “Month” and you’re set:

    Spending-By-Category Report

    Exporting this data to Excel is a simple matter, too. In the Quicken report menubar, choose EXPORT DATA → REPORT TO EXCEL-COMPATIBLE FORMAT, then give your data a save location and a name, and save it.

    One problem, though: When opened in Excel, Quicken reports usually have the date periods as columns, and spending categories reside in rows. What if you want your categories in columns, and your dates in rows? (This is usually my preference.)

    Thankfully, Excel makes such a switch very easy to do.

    Transposing Rows & Columns in Excel

    As an example, I created a “Spending by Category” report in Quicken which shows my auto expenses for a portion of 2010 (March 1 thru July 31):

    Spending-By-Category Report

    Exporting that to an Excel-compatible format gives me a text file, which I named “Data2.txt” and saved on my desktop. I then opened a blank Excel spreadsheet, and from within Excel, I then opened Data2.txt.

    Importing a text file to Excel like this is quite easy: In the Excel menubar, select FILE → OPEN. Navigate to the text file you wish Excel to import. Excel opens its Import Wizard, where you can change column breaks and ignore rows as necessary. When you’ve finished this, click OK to close the Import Wizard, and your text file should now be converted into Excel.

    Readers who wish to follow along with the files I’m using can get them here:

    Excel File: Sample Data (ZIP file with Data2.txt and Data2.xls inside)

    Just download and extract that ZIP file, and you’ll have the files I use below. Play with them as you wish!

    Once the text file has been opened in Excel (I’m using Excel 2010), it’s time to work some magic. We want our date headers to be in rows, rather than columns, and our categories to be in columns, rather than rows.

    First, select the area of data to be transposed. In this case, that’s B5 thru H13:

    Select the data to transpose.

    Now right-click inside that area, and select COPY:

    Right-click and select COPY

    Now place your cursor in the spot where you want the data to be moved (and transposed) into. For this example, I’ll select Cell B15. In that cell, right-click again, and choose PASTE SPECIAL:

    In the PASTE SPECIAL menu that appears, select TRANSPOSE:

    PASTE SPECIAL -- TRANSPOSE

    Our data rows and columns have now been switched (transposed)!

    Data is now transposed.

    I can’t tell you how many times that this feature of Excel — being able to swap rows and columns with a few clicks — has saved me TONS of work!




     

     

  10. Document Storage: Digital or Paper?

    Lately I’ve been kicking around the idea of going “95% digital” for my household’s record-keeping.

    Because digital storage is dirt cheap these days, my idea is to purchase a scan-to-PDF machine (such as this Fujitsu ScanSnap S1500, or its little brother, the ScanSnap S1300 machine), and gradually get away from paper record-keeping as much as possible.

    Status Right Now: Paper Is … Okay

    We have what seems, to me, to be a pretty good paper filing system right now. It’s been a long time since I wasn’t able to find what I needed pretty quickly. A couple of filiing cabinets, plus lots of manila folders, work quite nicely.

    Truth be told, the reason I’m considering this move is that most all of the banks we deal with offer perks for going paperless — and I’ve always signed up. So I’ve already taken our bank-statement filing into the digital realm. On balance, this has worked out nicely. I’ve got statements going back a few years … and no paper copies to shuffle through should I need to find something.

    Everything else, though, is still paper. Which means it takes up space.

    Considerations: Backing Up and Retrievability

    Hard drives crash. Your teenage son decides to use your laptop as a Frisbee. Your house becomes target practice for a lightning storm and catches fire.

    Stuff happens.

    The trick is: What do you do about it beforehand? Well, you try to plan for contingencies.

    So, as far as backing-up your records, it sure seems that digital files would be FAR easier to maintain on an ongoing basis. In case of a house fire, for instance, whatever’s in our filiing cabinets would be quickly rendered to ash.

    Digital records, however? That’s another story. With digital, you’ve got options.

    Thanks to previous hard-drive failures, I already have a second, external hard drive for backup purposes. If our house were to burn down, though, that wouldn’t be of much help. (Unless we had the time and forethought to grab the thing on the way out. Yeah, right.)

    Ideally, I would need to look into services like Mozy or Carbonite for off-site (read: as close to “truly safe” as you can get) storage.

    Paper can be stored off-site, too, of course. But what if the storage facility floods or burns? Your one and only copy of [insert document here] just went bye-bye.

    In the end, I have to think that the backup- and retrieve-ability of digital records FAR exceeds that of paper, no matter how you slice it. So digital gets two points here.

    Score: Digital 2, Paper 0.

    Consideration: Space Requirements

    This one’s a no-brainer: Digital records take up less space than paper. Duh.

    Of course, the scanner itself will take up some counter space. But then, so do the document folders I keep close at hand with my laptop. Could those folders be made to disappear, courtesy of the scanner? Glancing through them now — FSA receipts, use-tax receipts, small-biz documents — I’d have to say that most of them could.

    Most, but probably not all.

    Now, how much file-cabinet space could I save by going digital? Umm … a LOT. I have scads of file folders that are just BEGGING to be digitized.

    Score: Digital 3, Paper 0.

    Consideration: Price

    As evidenced by a quick Amazon link-click above, PDF scanners aren’t exactly free. Price tags of $250 to $450 are common.

    And should the need to print documents arise, at least in any appreciable amount, well, toner ain’t cheap, either.

    On the flip side, monster amounts of storage are easily had. Gigabytes and terabytes are (to my thinking) cheap, and getting cheaper. This applies to hard drives, thumb drives, and beyond. And online storage ranges from free to a few dollars per month.

    But what’s the cost of keeping the paper I already have? What’s the cost of keeping the paper copies we’re sent in the mail? Well, you have to buy folders every so often, but beyond that, it’s pretty much nil. (Aside from the physical-space aspect, which I already covered.)

    Meh … gotta go with paper on this one.

    Score: Digital 3, Paper 1.

    Consideration: Ease of Use

    Fun Fact of the Day: I’ve been known to be damn lazy at times.

    I know, I know. You readers can hardly believe that. (That’s what I’ll tell myself, anyway.) But it’s true.

    So if I bought a scanner, would I consistently use it?

    Depends how quick and easy it is to operate. And this, I can’t answer. I’ve never used a dedicated PDF scanner such as those linked above.

    (We have a Dell printer at my workplace that can scan to PDF and save on a USB thumb drive. While that functionality is a lifesaver at times, the Dell ain’t the fastest thing in the world. Its warmup time, to be blunt, sucks like no other.)

    If anyone out there has experience with a dedicated scanner like this, I’d appreciate your thoughts on this aspect!

    Given my scanning inexperience, I’ll tentatively apply “no advantage / no score” here.

    Score: Digital 3, Paper 1.

    Summary: Is Digital Worth It?

    At this moment, I sit at my table, staring at an accordion folder’s worth of small-biz documents — plus a few folders of standard household records. I think of the additional two filing cabinets’ worth of documents we have in our computer room. I think of all the paper that’s going to be coming into my life from this point on.

    Egads. That’s a lot of paper to deal with. And much of it will need to be stored.

    So I wonder if the several hundred bucks I’d be laying out for a scanner isn’t really a bargain. Perhaps my largest obstacle here is getting over the “comfort” of paper. Because my current system has worked well, I’m comfortable dealing with paper. Moving to a digital library of PDF’d documents means creating a new system. It means moving away from comfort.

    Which makes a guy like me — a guy who strives for control — nervous.

    Any considerations I’m missing? Am I seriously late to, or overly cautious regarding, the digital-document revolution?